Market fluctuations almost completely were according to our expectations last five days. EUR gained some positions against USD, GBP was weaker than greenback. USD/JPY traded in a wide range.
Those fluctuations were easy to predict as the news background was not significant. The main data was published on Friday. US Retail Sales statistics was weaker than expected and this fact exerted pressure on USD.
EUR continued to strengthen against greenback. As for GBP, it was under pressure after UK Manufacturing Production data, published on Tuesday. Even weak US Retail Sales data was unable to give a significant support to GBP/USD.
USD/JPY showed adequate reaction to the US Retail data and Japanese yen got some additional strength against USD.
This week promises to be interesting as more statistic expected which may result in wider volatility. UK CPI y/y data is to be published on Tuesday. Experts from Bloomberg forecast no changes. ZEW Economic Sentiment data for Germany will be published on Tuesday as well. According to the forecasts, this data will show growth up to 2,1 point.
CPI m/m data is to be published on Tuesday in the USA. Experts await no significant changes in this data. However, last US Retail Sales report was weak and there is a probability of unexpected surprises.
UK main data is to be released on Wednesday. We advise to pay attention to Labor Market statistics. Bloomberg analysts expect the number of unemployment claims to increase. FOMC meeting minutes are to be published the same day.
UK Retail Sales data will be released on Thursday. Experts expect this data to grow. We also advise to follow PhillyFed manufacturing index. Economists expect growth.
This Friday will be relatively calm as there will be no important data. The market may continue to trade stats, released previously this week.
The fundamental picture is rather interesting. The large number of data may provoke significant fluctuations.
Now we are going to give you some technical analysis ideas for the upcoming 5 days.
The EUR/USD situation is unclear. The Bulls dominated last week from one side. However, that uptrend is a part of the whole flat, starter on June 2016 after the release of the results of the Brexit Referendum.
The volatility is weak at the moment and the current range becomes tighter. We do not expect this volatility to last long. Today the range may be tight due to Bank Holidays in France and Italy.
The main news will be released since tomorrow. The volatility may considerably rise. There may be some trend on the market according to the results of publications.
EUR/USD is still above the middle curve of the Bollinger Bands indicating on Bullish moods. However, the situation may change and we recommend following the releases this week.
The situation with GBP/USD is also unclear. The price is close to the lowest points of the year and we do not expect it to break them through. There is a probability of a good correction.
The volatility is too weak and today we do not expect it to change a lot. However, tomorrow there will be lots of releases that may significantly influence fluctuations. GBP/USD is still below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicating the downtrend. Everything may change in the upcoming days. We advise you to pay attention to BB.
There was no significant changes in USD/JPY’s fluctuations. The currency pair went upwards and then lost some positions on the worse than expected US Retail Sales data. This dynamics suits binary options traders as they may earn on both sides fluctuations.
As for this week, we expect the volatility to tighten. Tomorrow there is an important US data and the volatility may take strength. There is also a possibility of a local trend. Tomorrow’s statistics may determine its direction.